TKS Ephemeris · trust

Validation & Trust Report

What TKS Ephemeris has been checked against — and, equally, where it has not. The engine's credibility rests on its outputs and their verification, not on any unverifiable claim. Everything below is either an internal control, a comparison to a published reference, or an explicit "no reference exists".

Honesty rule. Beyond the JPL DE441 coverage edge (−13,200 … +17,191) the engine produces reconstructions (Engine B). No independent reference exists there, so those results are labelled as such and not presented as observational-quality.

In-coverage (within JPL DE441)

ComponentChecked againstResultStatus
Apparent positions (Sun–Saturn)JPL DE441 state data (rebuilt by the engine's own SPK/DAF + IAU-2006 precession-nutation)≈ DE441 to numerical precision (mas-level)internal control
Precession / nutationIAU 2006 (Fukushima–Williams) + IAU 2000B nutationstandard adopted modelstandard
ΔT / time scalesSöhnel–Smalley 2016 (SMH2016) ΔT model; UT1 from UTCmodel-basedmodel
Ayanāṃśa (True Chitrāpakṣa)Spicā (α Vir, HIP 65474) anchored at nirayana 180°, via ICRS + proper motion + ecliptic-of-date180.000° by construction (definitional)definition
"mas-level" = milli-arcsecond at the engine-vs-DE comparison for bright bodies; the DE's own absolute accuracy vs reality is sub-mas near J2000, worsening toward the coverage ends.

Eclipse engine — NASA Five Millennium Canon (Espenak & Meeus)

TestReference / spanResultStatus
Solar type classificationCanon, −1999 … +3000 · n = 11,8980 true type mismatches · 0 Saros mismatches · 37 grazing/hybrid edge cases excluded (listed)verified
Lunar type classificationCanon, −1999 … +3000 · n = 12,0640 true type mismatches · 0 Saros mismatches · 32 edge cases excluded (listed)verified
Greatest-eclipse time (TT) vs Canonsame spansolar Δt rms ≈ 109 s · lunar Δt rms ≈ 109 s (dominated by the Canon's ΔT convention, not by geometry)compared
Magnitude & γsame span|Δmag| mean ≈ 0.002 (solar) / 0.003 (lunar) · |Δγ| ≈ 3×10⁻⁵ R⊕compared
Engine-side scan rateinternal≈ 166 ms per 1,000 yr of timeline scannedinternal
Total cross-checked: 23,962 events (11,898 solar + 12,064 lunar) across the Canon's full span. "True mismatch" = the engine's class differs from the Canon after excluding grazing/hybrid classifications that sit on a type boundary; the excluded cases are listed in the harness output (eclipse_validate).

Dynamical controls (Engine B, N-body)

ControlSetupResultStatus
Forward vs DE (within coverage)N-body seeded at the edge, integrated forward, compared to DE441agrees (e.g. Moon ~12.8 km, Mercury ~446 km over 100 yr)internal
Backward integration accuracyseed inside coverage, integrate backward, compare to DE441after the dir-sign fix: Sun λ Δ = 0.000° (1 yr) and matched at 100 yrinternal
Fitted truncated lunar seriesleast-squares fit to DE441 (Delaunay terms), validated on held-out DE441λ ≈ 5–7′ · β ≈ 0.2° (near edge); λ ≈ 7′ over ~2200 yrheld-out

Beyond the coverage edge (Engine B) — reconstructions

ItemReference available?What is claimedStatus
Planetary positions beyond edgenoneN-body (DOPRI5, EIH 1PN, J2–J6), ~arcmin over the near bandsno reference
Moon beyond edgenonefitted lunar series; accuracy degrades with span (chaos + tides)no reference
Long-term precession (pole/ayanāṃśa)Vondrák et al. (2011, 2012), valid ±200 kyrpole star / ecliptic pole from ERFA eraLtpequ / eraLtpecl coefficientspublished model
These are dynamical reconstructions: internally consistent and physically grounded, but not equivalent to a modern observational ephemeris. They are labelled "reconstruction" wherever displayed.

Accuracy tiers (what we claim, where)

SpanSun / planetsMoonBasis
−13,200 … +17,191 (DE441)≈ DE (mas → arcsec at the ends)≈ DE (cm–m near J2000)reference state data
Near-edge ±2,000 yr~arcmin (est.)λ 5–7′ / β 0.2° (measured)Engine B + fitted series
5,000 … 15,000-yr spansarcmin → degreetens of arcmin → degreesreconstruction (unvalidated)
≳ ±20,000 yrdegree-levelphase effectively lostreconstruction (unvalidated)

What is deliberately NOT claimed

• No "exact historical dates" for eclipses/chronology beyond the reference span.
• No observational-quality Moon positions beyond the near-edge band.
• No independent validation beyond the DE441 span (no reference exists).
• No claim that any single star is the pole star for a fixed interval without stating the angular-separation threshold.
संस्करणः bin-1790785658